Kansas can advance without Embiid

The Kansas Jayhawks get their first big test without freshman center Joel Embiid Thursday afternoon against Oklahoma State in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Conference tournament in Kansas City, Mo.

If you’ve been visiting another planet and haven’t already heard, Embiid is trying to rehab his injured back in time to return to the Jayhawks sometime during the NCAA tournament. He will not play in the Big 12 championship games. He may not play the first weekend of the NCAA tournament. That has prompted a reaction from some college basketball experts that Kansas simply can’t advance – may not reach the Sweet 16, are now a longshot for the Elite Eight, and certainly will not reach the Final Four.

That kind of talk is ridiculous. Anyone dealing in those kind of certainties should be able to grab the billion dollar prize from Warren Buffett by filling out a perfect NCAA bracket. (And that’s not going to happen.)

Kansas is losing a 7-footer, the best rim protector in college basketball, 11.2 points per game, 8.1 rebounds, 72 blocks and a 62.6 percent field goal shooter. It is a setback; a huge setback. But the people who want to write off Kansas are the same people who had no idea who Embiid was before he moved into the starting lineup and became such an impactful player. They are the same people who say Andrew Wiggins hasn’t lived up to the hype. What hype was that? Oh, yeah, the hype that said Wiggins was the next King James.

Give me a break.

Could Oklahoma State eliminate Kansas in the quarterfinal round? Could the Jayhawks slip from a No. 2 seed to a No. 3 seed next week? Of course. Those things could happen with Embiid in the lineup. With Marcus Smart playing again, Oklahoma State could run the table and win the Big 12 championship.

But don’t be surprised if the Jayhawks are the last team standing in the Big 12. If we’ve learned anything about Kansas during the last decade under Bill Self, it’s should be to never count out the Jayhawks. Self doesn’t push the panic button. He doesn’t even know where it is located.

There’s enough talent on this Kansas team to carry on without Embiid. It’s not the ideal formula, but Self is one of the best adjustment makers in college coaching. Beyond that, here are five keys to Kansas advancing:

1. Tarik Black must avoid early fouls – Sounds obvious, but Black has had foul trouble this season and he can’t do that as Embiid’s replacement in the starting lineup. Black has 77 fouls and one disqualification in 353 minutes this season. Embiid has played 647 minutes and been whistled for 94 fouls. Oklahoma State will come right at Black the way West Virginia did last Saturday. Black played three seasons at Memphis and has postseason experience. If he has two fouls before the first media timeout, KU is in trouble. If he plays smart, and stays on the floor, Self can work a rotation that involves Black, Jamari Traylor and Landen Lucas to overcome Embiid’s absence.

2. Wiggins must steal the show – It’s hard to win a shootout with Marcus Smart, but Andrew Wiggins is capable. The athletic freshman was everything the Jayhawks dreamed of when he scored 41 points against West Virginia. He has averaged 17.6 points and 6.2 rebounds in conference games. Wiggins has been attacking, driving, increasing his aggressiveness and averaging 20 points over the past six games. And he is KU’s best on-the-ball defender. If Smart gets hot, Self will turn to Wiggins to guard him – and hope that Andrew can stay out of foul trouble.

3. Everyone helps on the boards – Second shots will be a key stat in this game. Kansas must crash the boards, follow up misses and score on putbacks. Perry Ellis is sneaky good around the glass and averages 6.4 rebounds. He must give the Jayhawks more with Embiid out. Wiggins, Black, and Traylor must raise their rebounding efforts as well and if the guards can chip in that will help KU get into transition. But the key is Ellis playing up to his tremendous ability.

4. Limit turnovers – Kansas has been sloppy all season. The Jayhawks average 13.2 turnovers. Opponents average 11.5. Twice this season, against Florida and Iowa State, KU has been guilty of 24 turnovers in one game. The name of the game is efficiency, especially against teams with good guards. Oklahoma State qualifies and the Cowboys can’t wait to jump on the mistakes the Jayhawks might make. It translates into easy points.

5. Naadir Tharpe must be focused – This is a key with or without Embiid. Tharpe is the point guard. When he is on top of his game, the Jayhawks win. When he gets flashy and carelees, which he is prone to do at key moments in the game, it leads to disaster. Tharpe must step it up and play better defense. He has only 21 steals but it will be up to him, Wiggins and Ellis to disrupt the three-guard lineup of Smart, Markel Brown and Phil Forte. Kansas cannot leave Forte open from three-point range. The regular season is over. Tharpe has to elevate his game, be a leader and carry out Self’s game plan. Sounds simple, but it doesn’t always work that way. With Tharpe, it’s usually an adventure.