NO. 3 KANSAS (23-1, 12-1)
AT
NO. 1 BAYLOR (24-1, 13-0)
ESPN College GameDay; Waco, Texas, Ferrell Center (10,284)
Saturday Feb.22, Noon ET
ESPN (Dan Shulman, Jay Bilas, Holly Rowe)
By KEN DAVIS
It’s time for college basketball to step into the national spotlight. The Super Bowl has passed. Selection Sunday is drawing near and March Madness will follow. There was unprecedented turnover at the top of the rankings to open the season, but college hoops has not yet featured a bonafide “Game of the Year.”
That’s about to change.
It’s not Duke vs. North Carolina. It’s not even Duke vs. Florida State. It’s not Kentucky vs. Auburn, or Villanova vs. Seton Hall. It’s not Maryland vs. Michigan State.
No, the biggest game of the season so far will be played Saturday in the Big 12 Conference. No. 3 Kansas (23-3) travels to Waco, Texas to meet No. 1 Baylor (24-1) in a showdown that will, in many ways, set the table for what is coming in the weeks to follow.
Michigan State, Kentucky, Duke, Louisville, Kansas, Gonzaga, all staked a claim to the No. 1 ranking in the nation in the first 11 weeks of the season. But Baylor has resided in the top spot from Week 12 to Week 16. The Bears haven’t lost since a 67-64 setback to Washington on Nov. 8 and during their historic 23-game win streak they went to Lawrence, Kan., on Jan. 11 and beat the Jayhawks 67-55.
Kansas has won 11 consecutive games since that defeat, but a second loss to Baylor on Saturday would make it virtually impossible for the Jayhawks to win or share the Big 12 regular-season title with only four games remaining before postseason play.
Last season the Jayhawks saw their record string of 14 consecutive Big 12 regular-season championships ended when Kansas State and Texas Tech were co-champs. But Baylor’s experienced squad may be the most formidable threat to KU’s dominance since Bill Self arrived as coach in 2003.
“They have a complete team,” Self said. “They’re as good a team that we’ve had in our league since I’ve been here.”
Early projections for the NCAA Tournament have both teams resting on the top line of the bracket. The outcome of Saturday’s game may not change that but the winner could become a favorite for the overall No. 1 seed on Selection Sunday.
Clearly, there is a lot at stake. But Self says there is no need to stress those points in a pregame speech to his players.
“They know,” Self told reporters at a press conference Thursday. “I’m not coaching it like the league race. I’m coaching it like an opportunity to play a terrific team on a big stage away from home. The league race isn’t something I’m going to emphasize. They may talk about it themselves. We also know this, if you go down two games with four left … even if we were fortunate enough to run the table I don’t see [Baylor] losing twice. We know this is a big game concerning the league. I don’t have to talk about that.”
There are numerous talking points heading into the game. Here’s a quick glance to help you watch the game:
Key Kansas Player – Devon Dotson: There is a theory being tossed around national that says “As Dotson goes, so goes Kansas.” That sounds nice and there is a certain degree of truth, especially since Dotson is a prime candidate for national Player of the Year honors. But it’s not completely fair to a Kansas team that plays tremendous team defense. It’s definitely not fair to center Udoka Azubuike, who has been a dominant force at times and leads the nation in field goal percentage. And it’s not fair to guard Marcus Garrett, perhaps the top defensive player in the nation, or guard Ochai Agbaji, who makes consistent contributions at both ends of the floor. But KU will need a strong outing from Dotson to have a chance against Baylor’s talented guard group. Dotson leads the Big 12 in scoring with an 18.4 ppg average. More importantly, he sets the tone with his quickness to the basket, his ability to penetrate and fly past defenders, and his invaluable leadership after almost two full seasons as a starting point guard. Dotson had his eighth 20-point game of the season with 29 against Iowa State, leads Kansas with 53 steals, and is second with 105 assists.
“A lot is on the line this game,” Dotson said Thursday. “We are going to prepare like it is another game. We can’t let emotion get the best of us. We’ve got to play our game. I feel we are hungry in the locker room and competitive. We want to win.”
Kansas guard Devon Dotson (file photo)
Dotson, who injured his hip in the first half, was held to nine points on 4-for-10 shooting in the first game against Baylor. He had three assists and one steal. Dotson is healthy and playing his best basketball. The Jayhawks will need better numbers – including more than 28 minutes – from Dotson to win in Waco.
Key Baylor Player – Jared Butler: The 6-foot-3 sophomore guard has clearly established himself as a candidate for Big 12 Player of the Year honors and leads the Bears in scoring with a 15.6 average. More importantly he has been a nightmare for the Jayhawks to control. In the first game this season, Butler scored 10 straight Baylor points in the final eight minutes and led the Bears with 22 points overall. Last season Butler scored 45 points in two games against Kansas, including a career-high 31 in a 78-70 loss in Lawrence. He entered that game averaging 9.6 points but played 36 minutes, was 10-for-21 from the field and 8-for-10 from the free throw line.
“He’s good,” Self said. “We’re not going to shut him out. He’s going to get his because he creates his own.”
Since the first game between the two teams, Dotson has been the hotter of the two point guards. Butler’s play has been up and down but in the past two games, against West Virginia and Oklahoma, he has scored 43 points and hit 10 3-pointers. Against Oklahoma, Butler scored 11 of his 22 points during a crucial five-minute stretch in the second half.
Baylor guard Jared Butler (file photo)
“I get the confidence from Coach [Scott Drew] and my teammates,” Butler said after the game. “When they call my name, it’s my job to make the right play. Everybody on our team has a role, and I think I play my role pretty well.”
Teague Injury: MaCio Teague, a junior guard, is Baylor’s second leading scorer. He averages 14.4 points and has been the top scorer for the Bears in conference play. He missed Baylor’s last two games with a wrist injury and his status for Saturday is unclear, but Self expects Teague to be ready and that will further complicate the perimeter situation for the Jayhawks. Teague scored 16 points against Kansas in the first meeting of the season, hitting 6 of 10 shots and was 3-for-5 from 3-point range.
X factor – Kansas guard Marcus Garrett: There are no secrets in conference play. The Bears know they must keep an eye on Garrett at all time. He entered the season with a reputation for playing outstanding defense and now has established himself as the top defender in the nation. As the season has evolved, Garrett has given the Jayhawks a legitimate third overall threat behind Dotson and Azubuike. Garrett averages 9.6 points, shoots 45.8 percent from the field and leads the teams in assists, averaging 4.6 per game. Garrett has 19 steals in his last five games and took control in KU’s win over West Virginia with five steals. One game later, he scored 24 points against Oklahoma with six 3-pointers included in his 9 of 18 shooting. Self will likely start the game with Garrett on Butler but the Jayhawks will switch on defense and share the responsibility of guarding Baylor’s best player. Self could go back to a bigger lineup to improve rebounding but the Jayhawks have been better playing small and will likely maintain that look against Butler, Teague, Davion Mitchell and Freddie Gillespie. Garrett can impact this game on both ends.
Defense: Both teams pride themselves on their defensive play and there is no doubt the Bears and Jayhawks will try to establish themselves as the very best in this contest. On kenpom.com, Kansas ranks second in adjusted defense at 84.0 and Baylor is right behind at 84.9. The only team ranked higher is Big 12 foe West Virginia at 83.8. That tells you a lot about the level of play in the conference this season. Baylor can brag after the first meeting. The 55 points scored by Kansas matched its fewest in a home game since 2000. Kansas figures to score more than that this time around.
What’s ahead:
Kansas closes the season against Oklahoma State (Feb. 24), at Kansas State (Feb. 29), TCU (March 4), at Texas Tech (March 7)
After today, Baylor will face Kansas State (Feb. 25), go to TCU (Feb. 29), play Texas Tech (March 2), and finish at West Virginia (March 7).
Of course, the two could meet again in the Big 12 Championship in Kansas City, Mo. And don’t rule out the possibility of a Final Four meeting in Atlanta.
Quote: “When you’re No. 1 in the country, it’s tough. Everyone is coming at you. We stay tough-minded.” Jared Butler after Baylor beat Oklahoma.
Numbers:
- This marks the fourth time in eight Kansas-Baylor meetings that both teams are ranked in the top five of the national polls.
- Kansas is 0-2 against AP top 10 teams this season but has won 20 of its last 24 regular-season games against AP top 10 teams and eight of its last nine true road games against those opponents.
- Kansas is 3-2 against the AP’s No. 1 team under Bill Self. This marks KU’s first true road game against No. 1 since March 8, 1958 when the Jayhawks defeated Kansas State in Manhattan 61-44.
- Baylor is attempting to become only the second team to sweep Kansas in a Big 12 series in the Bill Self era. Oklahoma swept the Jayhawks in 2018.
- Kansas leads the series 32-6 and is 13-3 in games played in Waco.
- The Jayhawks lead the Big 12 in scoring offense (75.5 ppg). Baylor leads the conference in scoring defense (58.2).
- Baylor has trailed only 2.6 percent of game time over 12 home games this season (12:38 of 480:00). The Bears haven’t trailed by more than 2 points in any home game.
Prediction:
Kansas 69, Baylor 64
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