Five keys to the Villanova-Kansas national semifinal

 

By KEN DAVIS

 Since 1985, when coach Rollie Massimino led Villanova to its remarkable upset of John Thompson, Patrick Ewing and Georgetown in the national championship game, the Wildcats have had one of the prominent programs in college basketball.

Villanova is making its fourth trip back to the Final Four since that game this weekend in New Orleans. The Wildcats have won the national championship twice in their last three appearances, taking the trophy home in 2016 and 2018 under coach Jay Wright.

Saturday at the Superdome, Villanova will face the same semifinal opponent it squared off against in 2018 in San Antonio. Kansas, coach Bill Self, and Jayhawk fans would rather forget that game.

The hoops in the Alamodome seemed huge to the Wildcats. Villanova won 95-79. Villanova set a Final Four record, making 18 3-pointers. Seven Wildcats made 3s. Villanova jumped on Kansas 22-4 and never looked back.

“They were unbelievable that day,” Self said Thursday. “It wasn’t over before it started, but it wasn’t far off. That was a special team, maybe one of the best teams college basketball has seen the last decade. When you’re that talented and that well coached and drilled and then you play your very best on a particular day, you’re going to be tough for anybody to handle. And they certainly were too much for us.”

Wright is 5-3 all-time against Kansas. In 2016, the Wildcats defeated the Jayhawks 63-59 in the South Regional final in Louisville. None of that matters Saturday, except maybe in the back of Self’s mind.

Said Self: “I think Jay’s teams, if you were to ask coaches across America, I think, that played against him, they’d say they’re unbelievably sound, they’re fundamental, they don’t turn it over, you have to beat them, they don’t beat themselves. In our sport, there’s probably more games lost than there are games actually won, and they’re not going to help you beat them.

“So that would be something — that would be a great compliment if anybody ever said that about my teams. They probably don’t, but if they did, I would take that as a compliment because obviously they’re very, very good and sound.”

The game between Villanova and Kansas is being treated as the undercard in this Final Four with the Duke-Carolina matchup getting almost all the hype. That’s probably fine with all the participants. It figures to be a competitive and tight game.

Let’s breakdown the Villanova-Kansas matchup. Here are five key points.

PACE

This cannot be overemphasized. This semifinal game will be a match of wills and a battle of styles. Kansas wants to run, grab defensive rebounds, get into transition and score easy baskets. Villanova excels at a slower pace, executing in the half court, running the court, setting screens, posting its guards, and getting open shots.

Both teams will want to find a comfort zone, especially at the start of each half. Wright and Self are Hall of Famers and they can adjust on the fly. But the struggle for tempo will be important.

The Wildcats have one of the best point guards in the nation with Collin Gillespie. He is experienced and poised, a true leader on the court and in the huddle. There are times when Gillespie will talk more than Wright during timeouts. His teammates trust him and listen to him and Gillespie returned for a fifth season to reach this point in the tournament.

“Any time you’re a two-time Big East Player of the Year and obviously an All-American, you’ve got to be able to play,” Self said of Gillespie. “I think he’s really a talent, but I think his leadership and toughness equals his talent. I think he’s a terrific college player.”

Gillespie can score at every level and he is durable. He will get his rest during the longer timeouts featured in the tourney. Kansas will want to make Gillespie uncomfortable. That isn’t easy but the emergence of Remy Martin could be a difference maker. Dajuan Harris is a good defender and could use his length to bother Gillespie. The Jayhawks can change the pace throughout the game when Martin comes off the bench. Don’t be surprised if Self uses Harris and Martin together to rattle Gillespie.

THREE-POINT SHOOTING

 This is a huge part of Villanova’s game. The Wildcats have attempted 957 three-pointers in 37 games and shoot 35.7 percent from behind the line. At the same time, Villanova holds opponents to 30.1 percent.

Gillespie is the biggest threat, leading the Wildcats with 108 made 3s and a 40.9 shooting percent from long range. The season ending injury to Justin Moore is a blow to Villanova in many ways, but the Wildcats will miss his three-point shooting most. Moore has made 80 and shoots at 35.6 percent clip. Caleb Daniels comes off the bench to shoot 37.7 percent. Jermaine Samuels is the weakest shooting starter from 3-point land, hitting 27.5 percent.

“I don’t believe that we’ve gone against anybody during our regular season that would actually prepare us for the style that Villanova plays,” Self said.

“We’ve got guys in our league that may post guards, but we don’t have guys in our league that have guards get the ball at 20 feet and dribble into a post-up. It’s totally different and certainly not easy to prepare for.”

Kansas can run hot and cold from 3-point range.  Ochai Agbaji and Christian Braun combine as a formidable tandem, with Agbaji shooting 39.8 percent and Braun shooting 39.2 percent. Overall, the Jayhawks have made 267 and shoot 35.6 percent.  Kansas has held opponents to 29.6 percent and the defense has been vastly improved in the NCAA tournament. After Creighton hit 12 of 28, Providence and Miami combined to go 7 of 44 (15.9 percent).

Agbaji has made only four 3-pointers in four NCAA games and was 0-for-4 against Providence. Villanova will try to limit him and the path becomes easier for the Jayhawks if Agbaji can get his shot and find his stroke. Martin has been 5-for-12 in the tournament. Someone needs to step up for KU if the Jayhawks want to avoid a big disadvantage.

DEPTH/BENCH

 Don’t assume the Wildcats will lose just because Moore has been lost to injury. Villanova doesn’t work that way. Wright doesn’t coach that way. Wright and Self are two of the most positive and optimistic coaches in college basketball. They are known for overcoming obstacles and adjusting. And at this level of competition, there is something to teammates being inspired in these situations. Villanova’s reaction to Moore’s injury is proof that the Wildcats are motivated to win it all for him.

Moore averaged 34.4 minutes per game and that can’t be replaced. Wright has played six players who log 25 or more minutes this season. Caleb Daniels comes off the bench to play 27.2. After that it is Chris Arcidiacono playing 9.7 minutes.

Again, this is where the KU transition game comes into play. If the Jayhawks can run the way they want to, Villanova may have a stamina problem. The key word is “may.” The Wildcats are accustomed to playing lots of minutes. And you can be sure Wright will find a way to counter his problem.

Self primarily uses seven players, led by Agbaji (35.0 minutes) and Braun (34.3). Jalen Wilson and Dajuan Wilson each average 29 minutes with David McCormack at 21.5. Martin and Mitch Lightfoot have been productive off the bench and Self can also turn to Jalen Coleman-Lands and Joseph Yesufu in certain situations.

A key will be keeping McCormack involved and fresh. KU’s big man gives the Jayhawks an advantage if Villanova doesn’t pull him away from the basket. It will be up to Lightfoot to spell McCormack and the KU big men are a key to the game.

 FREE THROW SHOOTING

 One very important statistic: Villanova is the best free-throw shooting team in Division I basketball this season. And it’s really not close.

The Wildcats shoot an amazing 83 percent from the line. Kansas doesn’t rank in the Top 50. The Jayhawks shoot 71.9 percent as a team. Dajuan Harris shoots 79.2 percent but has only been to the line 24 times all season. McCormack has been outstanding at 75.6 percent and leads the team in makes (118) and attempts (156). Agbaji hits 76.4 percent.

Kansas has been good in close games this season. So has Villanova. But the free throw shooting obviously becomes critical in the final minutes of close games. Opponents don’t want to be trailing Villanova in a close game when they are forced to send the Wildcats to the free throw line. It’s a no-win situation, unless the big stage of a national semifinal gets to Villanova in New Orleans and they miss from the line.

That would be a rarity.

The Jayhawks have no good choices when picking a player to foul. Gillespie is amazing at 90.5 percent. The other starters are Samuels (77.3), Eric Dixon (82.5), and Brandon Slater (87.8). Daniels shoots 85.1 percent off the bench.

Justin Moore would be the choice at 75 percent. But he won’t be shooting free throws from the bench.

Kansas was 19-for-20 from the line against Creighton in the second round and 20-for-28 against Providence in the Sweet 16. Against Miami in the Elite Eight, the Jayhawks struggled at 13-for-26 but that didn’t matter in the second half that they dominated in every other way.

TOUGHNESS

 Any team that reaches the Final Four has a certain degree of toughness. Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina and Duke are elite programs that prove that point year-in and year-out. They’ve done it again this season, winning four tournament games to reach this point. That’s harder than it sounds.

Wright has built an intriguing culture at Villanova. His teams are known for playing hard. Really hard. And this season, the Wildcats have demonstrated that quality over and over, even though they did not win the Big East Conference regular season championship.

Preparing for Villanova means preparing for a hard-nosed group of players who aren’t afraid of floor burns. If there is a loose ball, expect one or more of the Wildcats to dive on the floor. There is no count for 50-50 balls in the box score but study game films and understand that Villanova wants them all. The same can be said for rebounding. And Villanova players have a mental toughness that keeps them in games. Wright recruits players with all those traits.

“[Attitude is] something that we want our guys to learn about for life and we want to learn on the basketball court,” Wright said “The basic concept is in life we don’t have control of what happens to us. But we have control of how we respond to whatever happens to us and we have a choice each day. Whatever is going on, what is our attitude going to be?”

Don’t discount Kansas in the context of toughness. The Jayhawks can play pretty basketball and they can play dirty. Self loves toughness and challenges his players constantly, even to the point of calling out Harris during a film review after a loss to TCU in the final week of the regular season.

“Coach called me something I didn’t like,” Harris said then. “I had to show him I wasn’t that word he called me.”

Harris was asked about Self’s technique again in New Orleans.

“He’s on us about every single thing – about anything,” Harris said. “So if you mess up, he’s going to get on you. If you mess up on the little things, he’ll get on you. So all the credit [for toughness] goes to Coach and the coaching staff.”

This Kansas team has been different since a 78-75 win at Kansas State on Jan. 22. The Jayhawks trailed by 16 at halftime in that game but finished with a 45-23 rebounding advantage and rallied to win. That is toughness.

“We knew it was going to be a grind,” Wilson said after that game. “We had to take advantage of our size. I feel like we wanted it more.”

In the NCAA tournament, Kansas led Providence by 13 in the second half, fell behind by a point, and then flipped the switch with a run on the way to a 66-61 victory. In the Elite Eight, Kansas trailed Miami 35-29 at halftime, only to outscore the Hurricanes 47-15 with tremendous defense in the second half.

Don’t call the Jayhawks soft.

“Every game is a fistfight [in the Big 12],” Self said. “I think our guys have enough confidence that when things don’t go well as a team, they think that they can go make an individual play.”